Monday, March 28, 2016

“Saradha Scam” to “Narada Sting Video” nothing can dent Mamata Banerjee (TMC) ‘s popularity as current opinion poll survey for Bengal assembly Poll 2016 shows only slight dent on Trinamool Congress (TMC) ‘s vote bank and some rise in BJP’s vote; still TMC is all set to comeback in power comfortably.

Just a week ahead of Bengal assembly Poll’16 a recent opinion poll survey by “Ma Mati Manush” Blog with over 20000 sample size throughout West Bengal indicates that Narada Sting Video is benefiting BJP in both seat and vote%  but very little dent in TMC’s seats and vote% in coming assembly election.

You may remember, a sting operation that was launched by Narada News before the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 has apparently shows TMC leaders at various levels accepting or discussing ways to take bribe. This would have had a considerable impact, coming at the time it has, just before the elections. But then, whom can the electorate go to instead? The Congress' stint at the Centre showed the party can be equally corrupt, if not more, and there have been serious allegations against top state Congress leader Adhir Chowdhury. The Left has also been accused of unleashing terror on the Opposition plus looting public money and conducting atrocities & genocides.

The Trinamool has denied the authenticity of the Narada video, with leaders including Derek O’Brien, Mukul Roy and Partha Chatterjee, maintaining the footage was doctored all through Monday. They further claimed it was part of a political conspiracy by a united opposition that was incapable of fighting the ruling party politically.

Remember before Loksabha Poll 2014 Saradha issue came up; and the last proof of political immunity for the TMC came in the second half of 2014 during the civic polls when it swept the hustings too. By this time, the CBI investigation had very little evidence to indicate that some ruling party leaders were part of the Saradha scam, and it didn’t seem to affect the Bengal electorate’s verdict.

So if Saradha is any benchmark, Narada is by far a weaker weapon to wreak electoral damage against the TMC which proved in our survey.

But five years on, has the Mamata government been able to deliver its promises? Have the hopes of the people been fulfilled? Has Poriborton happened in the real sense?

Evidence from the ground points towards positivity specially in rural areas. Rural infrastructure has been improved significantly. Also under Mamata’s rule 100days work, Kanyashree, Yuvashree  etc scheme was very successful and popular too. In spite of adverse media propaganda Bengal is growing so people is ignoring these politically motivated string operation or scams.

So now when West Bengal set to go to the polls from the first week of April, one feels that Mamata is set for a second term. The reason is simple: there is still no strong alternative, and a large section of the electorate is happy with Mamata's governance and development works.

Compare to our earlier poll of Feb’16 last week ( it shows only 3% dent in TMC’s vote after Narada issue and significantly 3% rise in BJP’s vote. It resulting 12 seats loss by TMC and 9 seats gain for BJP. But still TMC is getting 190 out of 294 which is better than their 2011’s performance. Left & Congress‘s scenario is mostly unchanged.

Significantly this opinion poll result is very similar to our Dec’15 opinion poll (
Now here is the result of our recent opinion poll (March 20th to 25th 2016) with comparison of our previous two polls.

Party             2016 Projection
                        Seats (Vote%)
           Dec’15      Feb’15          Mar’16
             (Post Malda) (General)     (Post Narada)
TMC     181 (44%)    202 (47%)   190 (44%)
 Left      50 (27%)       54 (29%)      54 (28%)
 Cong   33   (8%)        30 (7%)        29 (7%)
 BJP      28  (19%)      03 (12%)    12 (15%)
 Oth    02  (6%)         05 (5%)      09 (6%)

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Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.

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