Thursday, May 5, 2016

Exit Poll - West Bengal 2016: Final Exit poll/Predictions/Opinion poll of West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 is showing Trinamool Congress (AITC/TMC) is coming back in power with overwhelming majority in-spite of massive false propaganda by CPIM, Congress & BJP with the help of section of media (mainly ABP-Ananda & 24-Ghanta).



Here is the report of one of the largest Exit-Poll in West Bengal.


Over 80% turnout recorded in West Bengal assembly election 2016 which was held in 6phases (7round).

Bengal Poll 2016 is completed today (05/05/2016) with just few stray incidents plus lot of false-propaganda, dramabazi by CPIM-Congress alliance & BJP.

This electoral process completed under extraordinary supervision of Election Commission which acted against the ruling party AITC (TMC) due to allegedly directed by BJP & Left.

In spite of opposition directed (??) Election Commission and Central force have tried their best to prevent TMC from victory.

But people of Bengal are choosing Mamata Banerjee and her party as victorious. Majority of Media in Bengal had vigorously campaigned against TMC. 
Against all odds people of Bengal are with their beloved Didi Mamata Banerjee.

Didi (Mamata Banerjee) wave in West Bengal is still in full swing. Anti-propaganda by media (ABP-Ananda & 24-Ghanta) and opportunist alliance of CPIM-Congress has failed to stop this wave.

As per Prediction, based on EXIT-POLL/Opinion-Poll SURVEY carried out by this “Maa Mati Manush” (Ma Mati Manush) Blog in all 294 assembly constituencies of West Bengal we found that:
 
TMC likely to get 183 seats (+/- 15) with 45% vote share,

Lefts may get 67 seats (+/- 10) with 32% vote share,

Congress will get around 32 seats (+/- 5) with 8% vote share while 

BJP can win 9 seats (+/- 4) with 11% vote share only;

Others may get 3 seats (+/- 1) with 4% vote share.
(Margin of error for vote share party-wise is +/- 2%)  

Here is the district wise prediction*:
*
*Correction on above pic : Please Read Kolkata total 11 - TMC 9 & South 24 Parganas total 31 - TMC 25.


Area wise survey is showing AITC (TMC) is getting 49% vote in rural area whereas in urban area they are getting only around 42% vote.

As far as minority vote concerns, it’s significant that TMC is getting over 64% minority vote share in Kolkata and adjoining area.
Regarding minority vote- in Central-North region of Bengal Left+Congress alliance (particularly Congress) is getting 58% minority vote and TMC is getting only 30% minority vote.

Hence it clear that, "Trinamool Congress is coming back in power due to minority vote" is just a myth.



Our team carried out exit-poll surveys in all 294 constituencies in Bengal. We have collected samples of around 100 to 200 peoples from each constituency. 

All total we have taken opinion from around 40000 voters spread upon all sections of society with the help and with help and active participation of various other agencies, well-wishers and political pandits this vast survey was possible. 

For there priceless work THANKS will just be a small word.



This is one of the largest sample size taken for the Exit-Poll in West Bengal.

Now please look at the summary of the result of our seat projection and vote share.
 



Please recall that during parliamentary election 2014 this blog's prediction was almost correct.

Another important thing is- This Blog had predicted almost similar result in Jan'16 opinion poll survey
Only difference is BJP’s seat got reduced and Left gained from that.

Now if Mamata Banerjee and her party Trinamool Congress finally achieve this overwhelming victory it will be a historical win for her as this time it was against all odds.
 

Viewers may read following two articles to know how opportunistic and immoral politics was played in Bengal during this election.

1). Irony of politics: Rahul Gandhi of Congress shares stage with Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee of CPIM, those who labeled Rajiv Gandhi as Thief (Chor) and Indira Gandhi as Witch (Daini Buri). Also BJP candidate Chandra Kumar Bose appeals to vote in favor of Left in front of Amit Shah.

2). Bengal Election 2016: Irony of Politics (Part-2)>> People of Bengal Rejecting Yellow Journalism of ABP group (Aveek Sarkar) and Dramabazi plus Over Aggression by BJP’s Item Number actress politician Rupa (Roopa) Ganguly & others. এবারের পশ্চিমবঙ্গের বিধানসভা নির্বাচন আদতে মমতা ব্যানার্জির তৃনমূল কংগ্রেস বনাম অভীক সরকারের  আনান্দবাজার  গোষ্ঠীর লড়াই।


Please see other posts in this blog page by clicking "Home" or from "Popular Posts" / "Archives" sections, and if any remarks please post. 
Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.

22 comments:

  1. Prediction is very good,unbiased though it is rulling party's blog.Honestly speaking it is practical predicted results.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Amader priyo didi r oporisim porishorm jonny Trinomool dol 2016 ma mati manush 2 sarkar gorar purba amader proti ti starrer jono protinidihi der ektu chinta korer prohojon amra eato unoyon mulok kaj kora keno amader ei result??????

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is a good one. In south 24 Parganas, I personally believe, TMC will win almost all the seats. One by SUCI as you have predicted may be correct but 5 by JOT is very unlikely. Kanti Ganguly will win against Debasri Roy for sure. There may be one or two more seats (by a slender margin). In Darjeeling, GJM will win 3 (unfortunately) and one seat will be less for TMC. I believe, TMC's number will go to 170+/-8. I generally predict by reading in between the line.
    Whatever you say, BJP played a fine politics by attacking Mamata teeth and nail even knowing fully that they don't have any chance at all to win this election. They wanted to devide the opposition vote to make sure that TMC is getting the advantage. At any cost, they don't want Left or congress is coming in to power.
    I wish, my beloved Didi will ammend few mistakes our party made in the last few years. Holliganism has no place in our society. that has to be stopped. That's all. It will errase all the vise. And she has to continue the good work, which WB had seen almost after 30 years (in first few years of left rule, some good works were done).

    ReplyDelete
  4. Undoubtedly TMC is coming and will rule the govt for the 2nd Tim. But I want our respective CM to look after some people of the party personally who are diminishing the good works of the govt. Maa mati manush zindabad.

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  5. আমি বিশ্বাস করি গত পাঁচ বছরে আমাদের রাজ্য অনেক উন্নতি করেছে। যে ভাবে রাজ্য এগিয়েছে তাতে আমরা খুশি। চাইব একই ভাবে এগিয়ে যেতে। এই উন্নতির ধারা বজায় রাখতে।

    But, one thing I must say some controversies need to be well taken care immediately after oath taking....
    1. No more excuses talking about CPIM's 34 years of Jungle Raj
    2. Truth on Sarada Scandal
    3. Truth on Narod Sting Operation
    4. Solution of Singur land (bring back TATA, land giving back to farmers is not the solution)
    5. We have heard lot on 1.90 lakhs crore debt, what about another 1 lakhs crore (around) in last 5 years??
    6. Immediate recruitment in schools (only 1 time teacher recruitment in last 5 years!!)
    7. Truth on Syndicate Raj!!
    8. Need a well formatted group of ministry for speedy growth in all sector (large industry, road, construction, policy, finance, rural development, education, communication)

    Otherwise in 2019 Loksobha Election, people will not elect again.....

    ReplyDelete
  6. I agree with the overall analysis that TMC is returning with 2/3rd majority.However my predictions are[on basis of me being associated with electoral politics in India since 1997] is TMC:190-205, Cong +Left Front:85-100 , BJP:0-3
    For my prediction districtwise, pls refer to this link
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1324893814204411&set=pb.100000514164655.-2207520000.1462540242.&type=3&theater
    Tabulations are given in form of an excel sheet

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  7. I do appreciate the prediction that is broadly based on true ground situation. I only differ on ine count amd that is thevprediction regarding Darjeeling District. Two seats predicted for the TMC may bevteue but out of those two one may come at the cost of the CPI(M). Bhaichung Bhutia may defeat Ashoke Bhattacharya in Siliguri sending his so called 'Siliguri Model' to its grave.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Dada jei jituk. Tate amar kichu ase jai na. Sudhu ai tuku chai unnayon unnayon kore na chitkar kore aktu specific way te sottikarer unnayon ta hok. Onek kichu dakhar dorkar ache

    ReplyDelete
  9. Bhulbhal report. Bankura Aifb 1.onda? I guarantee you ONDA ARUP Khan win minimum 15000 margin.

    ReplyDelete
  10. THE GREATEST JOKE OF THE MILLENNIUM: MAMATA B. IS GOING TO WIN THIS 2016 ELECTIONS ........ HA HA HA HA .... WAIT FOR THE 19TH AND I WILL BE BACK HERE THEN.......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hope you will keep your word to come here on 19th to accept your defeat and to acknowledge that Communists always do false-propaganda.

      Delete
    2. Sir keno ei sob anonymos er bhul bhal comment er reply dicchen.. 19th e eder Charam Charam Dhak bajano hobe.. Didi 180+ pabei..
      Ami ei blog er analysis ke motamuti bastob sommoto ar impertial mone kori.

      Delete
    3. Hi anonymous leftist goon where are you???
      You promised to come here on 19th again.. Now like your party ChiPeeM you too disappeared???

      Delete
  11. Replies
    1. Yes Left will come back but on opposition bench not as ruling party.

      Delete
    2. Mr. Mallikarjun your Lefts are now not even main opposition party.. they are now 3rd boy..
      Don't you feel shame???

      Delete
  12. it is totally wrong report, true is trinamul will be defeated by cpim and cong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hahaha.. Even Mad people will laugh by listning your comment that Lefts will defeat Trinamool!!! :P
      Are Baba your (CPIM) top leaders are now saying that they will be constructive opposition, whereas you Chamchas are still dreaming for Lefts.
      Lefts were kicked out of Bengal forever.

      Delete
  13. jot Jitbe 100 % sure ...........

    ReplyDelete