As per details survey carried out by this “Maa Mati Manush” (Ma
Mati Manush) blog in all 42 parliamentary constituencies in West Bengal we
found that even if Trinamool Congress (AITMC) fights election alone they will get 31 seats and Lefts
will get 8 seats and Congress will get only 3 seats.
Our team carried out
surveys in between first to third week of October’13 and visited all 42
constituencies in Bengal. I alone also visited 15 constituencies before this
final prediction. We have collected samples of around 1000 peoples from each
constituency all total we have asked their opinion from around 40000 voters
spread upon all sections of society.
These survey results show
that Bengal’s publics rejected all sorts of yellow journalism & paid
stories by section of Bengal & National media. It is also proving that
Bengal is disapproving so called Watermelon leaders of Bengal-Congress totally.
Hereunder I am giving projection for each Loksabha seat of West
Bengal… This is first time that any survey giving individual seat wise
projections.
|
West Bengal
|
|
S.No.
|
Costituency
|
Name of Member won in 2009
|
Party
|
2014 Projection by MMM-Blog
|
|
1
|
Alipurduars(ST)
|
RSP
|
?? (RSP)
|
|
|
2
|
Arambagh (SC)
|
CPI(M)
|
AITMC
|
|
|
3
|
Asansol
|
CPI(M)
|
AITMC
|
|
|
4
|
Baharampur
|
INC
|
INC
|
|
|
5
|
Balurghat
|
RSP
|
AITMC
|
|
|
6
|
Bangaon(SC)
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
7
|
Bankura
|
CPI(M)
|
AITMC
|
|
|
8
|
Barasat
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
9
|
Bardhaman Purba(SC)
|
CPI(M)
|
AITMC
|
|
|
10
|
Bardhaman-Durgapur
|
CPI(M)
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
11
|
Barrackpur
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
12
|
Basirhat
|
AITC
|
?? (CPIM)
|
|
|
13
|
Birbhum
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
14
|
Bishnupur(SC)
|
CPI(M)
|
?? (CPIM)
|
|
|
15
|
Bolpur(SC)
|
CPI(M)
|
CPI(M)
|
|
|
16
|
Coochbehar(SC)
|
AIFB
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
17
|
Darjeeling
|
BJP
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
18
|
Diamond Harbour
|
AITC
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
19
|
Dum Dum
|
AITC
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
20
|
Ghatal
|
CPI
|
AITMC
|
|
|
21
|
Hooghly
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
22
|
Howrah
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
23
|
Jadavpur
|
AITC
|
?? CPI(M)
|
|
|
24
|
Jalpaiguri (SC)
|
CPI(M)
|
CPI(M)
|
|
|
25
|
Jangipur
|
INC
|
?? (LEFT)
|
|
|
26
|
Jaynagar(SC)
|
Ind.
|
?? (AITMC)
|
|
|
27
|
Jhargram (ST)
|
CPI(M)
|
AITMC
|
|
|
28
|
Kanthi
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
29
|
Kolkata Dakshin
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
30
|
Kolkata Uttar
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
31
|
Krishnanagar
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
32
|
Maldaha Dakshin
|
INC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
33
|
Maldaha Uttar
|
INC
|
INC
|
|
|
34
|
Mathurapur (SC)
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
35
|
Medinipur
|
CPI
|
AITMC
|
|
|
36
|
Murshidabad
|
INC
|
?? CPI(M)
|
|
|
37
|
Purulia
|
AIFB
|
AITMC
|
|
|
38
|
Raiganj
|
INC
|
INC
|
|
|
39
|
Ranaghat (SC)
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
40
|
Serampore
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
41
|
Tamluk
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
|
|
42
|
Uluberia
|
AITC
|
AITMC
|
(Note: Where margin is less than 3% we have given “??” marks as we consider
these seats are marginal).
Please see other posts in this blog page by clicking "Home" or from "Popular Posts" / "Archives" sections, and if any remarks plaese post. Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.
I agreed, TMC will certainly get above 30 sets.
ReplyDeleteBut I feel TMC also win Bishnupur & Jadavpur too,
The whole South Bengal excluding murshidabad district is having 31 seats.Among these 31 seats I guess TMC will get around 27/28 seats.
ReplyDeleteIn north 24 paragna I guess cpim can get the bashirhat seat.In south 24 paragana I guess cpim may get 1/2 seats.But I think TMC will win Jadavpur comfortably.
In Nadia cpim has chance in Krishnanagar.I am saying with respect to the result of recent panchaya election.From areas like Tehatta/Nakashiparta cpim scored good.TMC need to put more effort here.
I think you should taken into account the continiously changing scenarios of organisational strength in various part of the state.More and more people are leaving Cpim/Congress and joining TMC.This is increasing TMC's vote share.
For example you have shown CPIM is getting the Bolpur seat.But I think with recent incidents where all leading Birbhum congress leaders joined TMC,TMC'svote share will increase,congress will go down,effect of vote division between Congress and TMC will be affecting less and TMC alone will be able to with the seat.
Similarly I think TMC is also going to get the Bishnupur seat.The result of panchayat election shows the TMC is very much strong in Bankura district and much more powerful than CPIM.
In North Bengal I think TMC will get Coochbehar and Balurghat for sure.It may get the Darjeeling seat also.
So the total tally becomes 27/28 seats from South Bengal+2/3 seats from North Bengal = 30/31 seats in Total.
However the seats which CPIM may win in South Bengal like (Bashirhat/Krishnanagr/Jayanagr as per my analysis) will have a very tight finish.If TMC put good effort they also can win.At its best TMC may get upto 32/33 seats also.
Please provide your analysis against my analysis if you are having different opinions than me.