Thursday, May 4, 2017

Current political scenario in West Bengal >> Latest Opinion poll survey done in April’2017 for 2019 Parliamentary Election is showing TMC (Trinamool Congress) is still holding their strong hold in Bengal. BJP may come as a distance second if there is no alliance between Congress & Lefts.


Trinamool Congress (TMC) is all set to increase their tally & likely to win 35seats out of 42 in Bengal if parliamentary election held now. As Didi (Mamata Banerjee) magic in West Bengal is still on and people of West Bengal is all set to bring back TMC as victorious.

As per the largest opinion poll survey for West Bengal in 2017 which was carried out in all 42 parliamentary seats, it shows Didi (Mamata Banerjee) is still Dada (Boss) in Bengal.

As per detail survey carried out by “Maa Mati Manush” (Ma Mati Manush) blog in all assembly constituencies in West Bengal it had found that alleged media & sanghi sponsored BJP will face a big defeat in the hand of Trinamool Congress (TMC).
It is also showing that Left (mainly CPM) & Congress will lose major vote share and they will be almost negligible force in West Bengal as they likely get only 2 seats.

Our team carried out surveys in between  18th April’17 to 3rd  May’17 and visited all42 parliamentary  constituencies in Bengal. We have collected opinion of around 1000 to 1500 peoples from each constituency, all total we have got the opinion from more than 50000 voters. The people who gave their opinion are spread upon all sections of the society.


I believe this 50,000 sample size by Maa-Mati-Manush Blog is the largest sample size ever taken for an opinion poll survey for a state in India.

Remember this opinion poll survey was done after Ram Navami means after tremendous Anti-Trinamool communal campaign by Sanghis & BJP, meanwhile their party President Sri Amit Shah visited Bengal and does False-Propaganda against Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Congress.

(Plz refer to my this post for details: Hypes Vs Facts, False-Propaganda Vs Reality war continue between BJP & TMC. BJP is giving wild allegation with lots of manufactured lies which TMC countered with facts & figure.


 Please note that West Bengal is a bastion that the BJP has not been able to break on its own. The party won two of the state’s 42 parliamentary seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, getting 17% of the vote share. In comparison, the TMC bagged 34 seats with an almost 40% vote share

In the assembly election last year, in which Banerjee was returned to power, the BJP won three seats and its vote share increased to about 10% from 4% in 2011.

The CPM’s vote share dipped to about 20% last year from 30% five years earlier.

TMC leaders are confident of stemming the saffron tide before it sweeps Bengal.


Let us first look at the Vote share % among all parties in last few elections and in our opinion poll

Party
2011
Assembly Poll
2014
Loksabha Poll
2016
Assembly Poll
2017 Opinion Poll Survey
Trinamool Congress (TMC)
38.92%
39.05%
(34seats)
44.9%
49.8%
(35Seats)
Lefts (CPIM++)
38.39%
29.71%
(2seats)
25.9%
17.7%
(1Seat)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
04.14%
16.8%
(2Seats)
10.7%
24.9%
(5Seats)
Congress (INC)
15.03%
9.58%
(4Seats)
12.3%
7.6%
(1Seat)


Now as per our opinion poll survey most likely result will be as follows:



Party

2014 LS Election

Seats (Vote share)

2019 LS poll survey on 2017 Seats (Vote share)


TMC

34seats(39.05%vote)

35seats(49.8%vote)

BJP

2seats (16.8%vote)

5seats (24.9%vote)

Left

2seats (29.71%vote)

1seats (17.7%vote)

Congress

4seats (9.58%vote)

1seats (7.6%vote)


 This survey result once again proved that people of Bengal rejected all sorts of yellow journalism & paid stories by section of Bengal & National media.

It is also proving that Bengal is disapproving so called communal forces that spread lots of rumours to disturb Bengal’s communal harmony.

People of Bengal are also rejecting watermelon leaders of Bengal-Congress + Lefts completely.

Note: This survey tells about present scenario only as still 2yrs time is there before 2019 poll so any major issue/campaign can swing votes.

Vote% & Seats always doesn’t go parallel as some party (Like Cong) may have concentrated vote in some pocket & some party (Like TMC) may have votes in all areas.



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Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.

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