Monday, April 25, 2016

West Bengal Election 2016 Live: 4phases (5round of polling) in #Bengal Assembly Election 2016 recorded over 80% turnout and it passes almost peacefully with latest exit-poll/predictions showing TMC is very near to cross half way marks with 2 more phases likely to go.



With over 80% turnout recorded in 4 phases (5round) of West Bengal assembly election 2016 completed today with only few stray incidents plus lots of Dramabazi by CPM & BJP workers plus BJP’s ‘C’ graded actress cum politicians like Rupa Ganguly & Locket Chatterjee. Also voting was under extraordinary supervision of Election Commission allegedly directed by BJP & Left.

In spite of opposition directed election commission doing their best to prevent TMC from victory people of Bengal is choosing Mamata Banerjee and her party as victorious and media is vigorously campaigning against TMC still it’s clear that people of Bengal are still with their beloved Didi Mamata Banerjee.


Prediction and exit poll showing after 4 phases (5round) of Bengal Poll 2016 TMC is getting 137 seats out of 216 whereas Left + Congress alliance is getting 68 seats and BJP is getting only 9 seats.

Here are the full details of prediction/exit poll:

Round

Seats

TMC

Left+Cong

BJP
Marginal
(Can’t Predict)
1st
18
 14
   02
  01
  01
2nd
31
 20
   06
  02
  03
3rd
56
 25
   21
  02
  08
4th
62
 30
  23
  01
  08
5th
49
 33
  09
  02
 05
Total

216
122
   61
  08
  25

Now as per my calculation out of these 25 marginal seats TMC will get 15, Left+Congress will get 7, BJP will get 1 and others will get 2.

Considering this fact my prediction after 4 phases (5round) of election in West Bengal is as follows: 


Total Seats (5round): 216

TMC                         : 137

Left + Congress       : 68

BJP                           : 09

Others                      : 02


This figure is till 25th April'16 now to know voting pattern of West Bengal in this Assembly Election till date (30/4) please read following post:

Exit-poll/predictions/opinion poll of West Bengal Election 2016:  After 5phases (6round of polling) showing TMC is well above the halfway marks with 180 seats whereas Left + Congress is getting 77 seats and BJP is getting only 10 seats




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Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.

11 comments:

  1. bjp কে অনেক seat দিয়েছ, আমার মনে হয় না ওরা ওত seat (8) পাবে

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.

      Delete
  2. Very conservative prediction, but would agree with you in most of the cases.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sir which are the seats you think BJP will win..?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As I have already replied, in last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.
      West Midnapore-1
      Purulia/Bankura-1
      Birbhum-2
      N24Pgs-2
      Howrah-1
      NKol-1
      NBengal-1
      Now from remaining part they may get another 2-3 seats.
      In total 8 to 12 is my prediction for BJP.
      But if you see in totality it’s still not even 5% of total 294 seats so they have to go long way if they want to rule Bengal.
      Apart from communal politics; dependency on Non-Bengali leaders and candidates & bringing Guajarati/Marwari culture in Bengal plus Nautanki of item girl politicians is major drawback for BJP.

      Delete
    2. Sir BJP has chance in only the following seats:
      1. Mayureswar- Birbhum
      2. Jorasako- Kolkata North
      3. Kharagpur- WMidnapore
      4. Asansol (1-3 seats)-Burdwan
      5. North Bengal (2-3) seats (Madarihat, Kaliachak)
      6. Basirhat South - N24Pargana
      7. Krishna Nagar- Nadia (Highly doubtful)
      Apart from these there is no chance for BJP for winning any other seat

      Delete
  4. As I have already replied, in last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.
    West Midnapore-1
    Purulia/Bankura-1
    Birbhum-2
    N24Pgs-2
    Howrah-1
    NKol-1
    NBengal-1
    Now from remaining part they may get another 2-3 seats.
    In total 8 to 12 is my prediction for BJP.
    But if you see in totality it’s still not even 5% of total 294 seats so they have to go long way if they want to rule Bengal.
    Apart from communal politics; dependency on Non-Bengali leaders and candidates & bringing Guajarati/Marwari culture in Bengal plus Nautanki of item girl politicians is major drawback for BJP.

    ReplyDelete
  5. BJP does not aware of culture of Bengal, by importing Gujarat culture and Hidutva politics they are trying to destroy Bengal.
    Yes I agreed with Swaroop babu that they will never get more than 5% seats in Bengal.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I want to add Burdhaman also in BJP's probable seat list as from that district also BJP may get 1-2 seat.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Please display the list of probable winning party in each of 216 assembly constituency polled so far

    ReplyDelete
  8. I fully agree with your predictions.However,I want to know the full list of winning party of all 216 assembly constituency.

    ReplyDelete