With over
80% turnout recorded in 4 phases (5round) of West Bengal assembly election 2016
completed today with only few stray incidents plus lots of Dramabazi by CPM
& BJP workers plus BJP’s ‘C’ graded actress cum politicians like Rupa
Ganguly & Locket Chatterjee. Also voting was under extraordinary
supervision of Election Commission allegedly directed by BJP & Left.
In spite
of opposition directed election commission doing their best to prevent TMC from
victory people of Bengal is choosing Mamata Banerjee and her party as
victorious and media is vigorously campaigning against TMC still it’s clear
that people of Bengal are still with their beloved Didi Mamata Banerjee.
Prediction
and exit poll showing after 4 phases (5round) of Bengal Poll 2016 TMC is getting 137
seats out of 216 whereas Left + Congress alliance is getting 68 seats and BJP
is getting only 9 seats.
Here are
the full details of prediction/exit poll:
Round
|
Seats
|
TMC
|
Left+Cong
|
BJP
|
Marginal
(Can’t Predict)
|
1st
|
18
|
14
|
02
|
01
|
01
|
2nd
|
31
|
20
|
06
|
02
|
03
|
3rd
|
56
|
25
|
21
|
02
|
08
|
4th
|
62
|
30
|
23
|
01
|
08
|
5th
|
49
|
33
|
09
|
02
|
05
|
Total
|
216
|
122
|
61
|
08
|
25
|
Now as per my calculation out of these 25 marginal seats TMC will
get 15, Left+Congress will get 7, BJP will get 1 and others will get 2.
Considering this fact my prediction after 4 phases (5round) of
election in West Bengal is as follows:
Total Seats (5round): 216
TMC : 137
Left + Congress :
68
BJP : 09
Others : 02
This figure is till 25th April'16 now to know voting pattern of West Bengal in this Assembly Election till date (30/4) please read following post:
Exit-poll/predictions/opinion
poll of West Bengal Election 2016: After
5phases (6round of polling) showing TMC is well above the halfway marks with
180 seats whereas Left + Congress is getting 77 seats and BJP is getting only
10 seats
Please see other posts in this blog page by clicking "Home" or from "Popular Posts" / "Archives" sections, and if any remarks please post.
Thanks & Vande Mataram!! Saroop Chattopadhyay.
bjp কে অনেক seat দিয়েছ, আমার মনে হয় না ওরা ওত seat (8) পাবে
ReplyDeleteIn last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.
DeleteVery conservative prediction, but would agree with you in most of the cases.
ReplyDeleteSir which are the seats you think BJP will win..?
ReplyDeleteAs I have already replied, in last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.
DeleteWest Midnapore-1
Purulia/Bankura-1
Birbhum-2
N24Pgs-2
Howrah-1
NKol-1
NBengal-1
Now from remaining part they may get another 2-3 seats.
In total 8 to 12 is my prediction for BJP.
But if you see in totality it’s still not even 5% of total 294 seats so they have to go long way if they want to rule Bengal.
Apart from communal politics; dependency on Non-Bengali leaders and candidates & bringing Guajarati/Marwari culture in Bengal plus Nautanki of item girl politicians is major drawback for BJP.
Sir BJP has chance in only the following seats:
Delete1. Mayureswar- Birbhum
2. Jorasako- Kolkata North
3. Kharagpur- WMidnapore
4. Asansol (1-3 seats)-Burdwan
5. North Bengal (2-3) seats (Madarihat, Kaliachak)
6. Basirhat South - N24Pargana
7. Krishna Nagar- Nadia (Highly doubtful)
Apart from these there is no chance for BJP for winning any other seat
As I have already replied, in last Loksabha Election (2014) BJP get 17% vote this time in assembly election as per my calculation they will get 13-15% vote & for the first time in Bengal Assembly they may get double digit seat.
ReplyDeleteWest Midnapore-1
Purulia/Bankura-1
Birbhum-2
N24Pgs-2
Howrah-1
NKol-1
NBengal-1
Now from remaining part they may get another 2-3 seats.
In total 8 to 12 is my prediction for BJP.
But if you see in totality it’s still not even 5% of total 294 seats so they have to go long way if they want to rule Bengal.
Apart from communal politics; dependency on Non-Bengali leaders and candidates & bringing Guajarati/Marwari culture in Bengal plus Nautanki of item girl politicians is major drawback for BJP.
BJP does not aware of culture of Bengal, by importing Gujarat culture and Hidutva politics they are trying to destroy Bengal.
ReplyDeleteYes I agreed with Swaroop babu that they will never get more than 5% seats in Bengal.
I want to add Burdhaman also in BJP's probable seat list as from that district also BJP may get 1-2 seat.
ReplyDeletePlease display the list of probable winning party in each of 216 assembly constituency polled so far
ReplyDeleteI fully agree with your predictions.However,I want to know the full list of winning party of all 216 assembly constituency.
ReplyDelete